Bibliometric Mapping of Determinants of Attrition Among Distance Learners in Developing Countries

Abstract

The rapid expansion of distance learning in developing countries has highlighted persistent challenges, particularly high attrition rates. Despite its potential to bridge educational gaps, distance education faces significant dropout rates, often exceeding 50%, undermining its equity and efficiency goals. This study conducts a bibliometric analysis to map research trends, key determinants, and emerging themes related to attrition among distance learners in developing contexts. Using the Scopus database, 175 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2004 and 2025 were analysed. The study employed bibliometric techniques, including co-citation and keyword co-occurrence analysis, visualised via VOSviewer and Microsoft Excel. PRISMA guidelines ensured systematic data collection and analysis, focusing on publication trends, productive journals, influential countries, and intellectual structures. Findings revealed a surge in research post-2020, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. Leading journals included the British Journal of Educational Technology and Computers & Education, while China, India, and Malaysia dominated publication output. Key themes centred on student motivation, institutional support, and technological barriers, with emerging focus areas like digital poverty and social inclusion. Co-citation analysis highlighted a reliance on Western theoretical frameworks, underscoring gaps in localised models. The study underscores the need for context-specific strategies to address attrition, emphasising infrastructure investment, pedagogical adaptations, and policy reforms. It calls for interdisciplinary collaboration and regionally tailored research to enhance retention in distance education systems across developing countries.