Governance Deficit and the Proliferation of Armed Banditry in Northwestern Nigeria: Evidence from Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara States

Abstract

This study examines the intricate nexus between governance deficit and the persistent rise of armed banditry in three of Nigeria’s most affected states: Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara, over the period from 1999 to 2021. Drawing on a mixed-methods research design, the study integrates quantitative data collected from over a thousand respondents with qualitative insights from focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and in-depth interviews involving community members, government officials, and security actors. The research investigates the historical emergence, structural drivers, and operational dynamics of banditry, highlighting the perspectives of both victims and perpetrators. The findings reveal a compelling correlation between governance failures, characterized by widespread poverty, systemic corruption, weak institutional capacity, political exclusion, and neglect of rural communities, and the proliferation of non-state armed groups that have undermined state authority and eroded human security. The study further documents the devastating socio-economic impacts of this insecurity, including mass displacement, collapse of rural livelihoods, destruction of infrastructure, and growing state fragility. In evaluating the responses of state and federal authorities, the study finds that existing strategies, often militarized and reactive, have failed to address the structural roots of the crisis. It argues for a paradigm shift toward a governance-centered and human security–oriented framework that emphasizes inclusive development, accountability, institutional reform, and community engagement. The paper concludes that sustainable peace and development in Nigeria’s northwestern region can only be achieved through the restoration of state legitimacy and the strengthening of governance mechanisms capable of addressing structural inequalities and delivering public goods effectively.